IN NEED OF DIRECTION

General discussion board about VAMs, but no buy/sell offers
VAM-PIRE
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IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by VAM-PIRE » Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:32 am

Hello World, I've been collecting coins, mostly Morgans, for about 50 years. How far my collection has come, from a coffee can full of coins looking like they went thru the meat grinder, to a full date/mm set of business strike Morgans slabbed and vammed. I've even acquired a few proof Morgans. I first got into VAM's about 5 years ago, and immediately enlisted the help of several publications. The ones I find myself going to the most for info and pricing are Red Book, VAMVIEW (2015), WOW Book, Ebay sold items, and of course the wealth of information contained in the pages of VamWorld. I've gotten 90% of my Morgan knowledge in the last 5 years. So what is my point, I can hear you all saying? From what I can see, prices have taken a dive over the past 5 years. Is it the economy, or just my imagination. If you want a rude awakening, compare some current Ebay sales prices to the 5 yo estimates in VAMVIEW, whose estimates can be 2-3 X more than current prices of similar examples. What say you????

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HawkeEye
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by HawkeEye » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:15 am

I have seen this concern from a lot of longer term collectors and it appears that your concerns are real for most common coins in the short term. The best I can tell is that the very top end has held up well but not so good below that.

I think it is several things. As the economy has improved investing in the stock market has just about sucked the air out of everything else, so demand for collectibles has eased off. Then there is an age issue and this one is what concerns me. I don't think we are attracting enough new collectors because today we are competing with electronics and a host of things with the young crowd.

But we are all old enough to know that things go in cycles and you just have to wait them out. Like the stock market this might be a great buying opportunity that we look back on in a decade and wonder why we did not buy more. My advice has always been to buy what interests you and if profit results great, otherwise you got to spend time on a hobby you love.
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vamsterdam
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by vamsterdam » Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:08 pm

another thing affecting downward pricing is Lloyd Gabbert's death and dumping 7 vam sets on the market at once, and several other people selling LARGE quantities of vams at once9several million dollars worth in a couple auctions). this flooded the market, which forced some decent vams to sell for no premium. I tried to tell several people not to dump everything they had on the market all at once but they would not listen. and, as I said, their coins went for pennies on the dollar. I often to sell them myself, know I could get WAY more than what they would get by dumping everything all at once but no, they dumped and ran, losing mega thousands in the process. Panic selling hurts everyone.

DHalladay
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by DHalladay » Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:44 pm

The current market is what it is, and it is filled with realities.

Lloyd being gone is one of them. He was a major force in buying PCGS-attributed VAMs. Those of you who didn't know him have no idea what a huge factor this is. Not only did that stop when he died, but his coins coming back into the pipeline have swamped a market that is not nearly big enough to absorb them.

Demographics are shrinking the size of the market. Not just for VAMs, but coins in general. Older collectors are leaving in greater numbers than new collectors are entering; it's a one-way street with a bad eventual outcome.

Pick any number of years ago you want and the reality is the same: there are a LOT more eyes looking for VAMs today than back then. Plus, there's a LOT more information to help identify them, so of course they are being found. So is it any surprise that the pool of identified VAMs is constantly growing?

A small group of wealthy, high-end VAM collectors are taking care of the 1% of elite true VAM rarities, but demand for everything else is somewhere between soft and dead.

The past is the past; we have to live in the now. What things used to sell for is totally meaningless.

It's a great time for people who simply want to own certain VAMs in modest grades, but a disaster for people who thought getting a VAM identification on a holder guaranteed making a profit.

I keep buying coins I like in grades that I couldn't own before. I do it because I want to; no other reason. I sell my extras to take advantage of opportunities, regardless of the outcome. Enjoyment is the value I get out of VAMs. How about you?
When in doubt... don't.

colwillys
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by colwillys » Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:57 pm

Dennis You have stated the directions the best ..
The enjoyment is up most , and having FUN .. Do not put a price in stone , as a saying sometimes you eat
the bear and sometimes the bear eats you .

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ChiefRet.
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by ChiefRet. » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:03 pm

Great topic guys,

I especially liked your final comment Dennis, "I keep buying coins I like in grades that I couldn't own before. I do it because I want to; no other reason. I sell my extras to take advantage of opportunities, regardless of the outcome. Enjoyment is the value I get out of VAMs. How about you?".

Well said.

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CascadeChris
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by CascadeChris » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:35 pm

Dennis, in my experience of the last 6-8mo I couldn't disagree more with the feel for the current market. There is a hunger out there coming primarily from young and new collectors gobbling up the cool VAMs, both rare & common, and even non-list ones that have cool naked features and they are paying up. I'm surprised almost daily at the prices I'm getting, in general.
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HawkeEye
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by HawkeEye » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:42 pm

I hope you are right and that we can encourage them to all land here for added understanding. Nothing cures a down market like demand.
Deep in the woods of North Georgia

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impairedsquirrel
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by impairedsquirrel » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:44 pm

Of course a big difference in the overall Morgan market between now and 5 years ago is the fact that we were coming back from $50/ounce silver prices 5 years ago...
When I first got back into Morgans (when silver was about where it is now on its way up...) I was buying common MS63s for $25-30 anytime I wanted and it’s coming back to that. I believe our economy is falsely propped up right now and is due for a crash. When that happens silver will get popular again.
I go totally NUTS for WOW! VAMs!! Or is that from WOW! VAMs?

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CascadeChris
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by CascadeChris » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:07 pm

HawkeEye wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:42 pm
I hope you are right and that we can encourage them to all land here for added understanding. Nothing cures a down market like demand.
I have been. Some have been added. One yesterday, in fact. While others are lurking. Trust me guys, its about to blow up. Now, will it last? Will it bubble out? Who knows. But, right now, all indications are that VAMs are heating up considerably... As common date plane-jane 65/66 and even 67's are taking a plunge.
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crabscrape
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by crabscrape » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:44 pm

A lot more coins will be flooding the market. I don't see it getting any better. To many Old timers leaving and the families have to just get rid of the collection. As stated! not nowhere is there enough of Newbies to take the place of the ones leaving. That is a fact. Sorry, but a better plan to bring the younger ones in, has to be presented different then what is going on in VW2.

dave700x
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by dave700x » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:48 pm

crabscrape wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:44 pm
A lot more coins will be flooding the market. I don't see it getting any better. To many Old timers leaving and the families have to just get rid of the collection. As stated! not nowhere is there enough of Newbies to take the place of the ones leaving. That is a fact. Sorry, but a better plan to bring the younger ones in, has to be presented different then what is going on in VW2.
I couldn't agree more with this. Certain VAMmers seem to want to drive people away from this site rather than draw them in.
1883-O nut

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TheYokel
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by TheYokel » Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:16 pm

So as a newer and younger hunter/collector, I'll add my two pennies...

Based on my eBay sales... Morgans are fine. The good ones constantly sell for *More* than the PCGS grade price. I've even sold a couple nice raw ones that surprised me. Prices on *good* examples are climbing slowly...

...that being said I have no idea what the Morgan market was like 5 years ago. Maybe i got into the hobby at the up-tick from the last price fall. That i can't speak to. But i can say that cull Morgans constantly sell on my Facebook groups for $25-30 and nicer ones go up from there. There is this weird place between the $30 raw Morgans and the $65 MS64 Morgans like the 1889 series... And it's extremely easy to lose money in that zone.

Stay away from book priced common date coins below MS63, and the rest of the market seems very stable.

A point made by Mr. Squirrel is also very relevant. The cost of silver directly impacts the cost of lower grade morgans. We're in the lowest silver price in *a while*... The fact Morgan prices didn't tank with it is a very good sign for now.

There are less collectors, that might possibly be true. But there is *a lot* more money out there than at any time in history. Over 10,000,000 US households make over $1,000,000 a year according to the last census...

There's lots and lots of money out there for the Morgan collecting market, and young people *love* to collect things. I'm the generation that grew up collecting MTG cards, the last era of baseball cards, hotwheels, video games, etc...

We just need to get them interested in collecting Morgans (and in our communuty's case, Morgan VAMs)...
"There is no E"...

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DHalladay
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by DHalladay » Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:07 pm

CascadeChris wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:35 pm
Dennis, in my experience of the last 6-8mo I couldn't disagree more with the feel for the current market. There is a hunger out there coming primarily from young and new collectors gobbling up the cool VAMs, both rare & common, and even non-list ones that have cool naked features and they are paying up. I'm surprised almost daily at the prices I'm getting, in general.
Chris, I really want you to be right, but I'm just not seeing it. I am gathering sales results from eBay and elsewhere on a near-daily basis for my database, and I see prices going lower.
When in doubt... don't.

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CascadeChris
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by CascadeChris » Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:34 pm

DHalladay wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:07 pm
CascadeChris wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:35 pm
Dennis, in my experience of the last 6-8mo I couldn't disagree more with the feel for the current market. There is a hunger out there coming primarily from young and new collectors gobbling up the cool VAMs, both rare & common, and even non-list ones that have cool naked features and they are paying up. I'm surprised almost daily at the prices I'm getting, in general.
Chris, I really want you to be right, but I'm just not seeing it. I am gathering sales results from eBay and elsewhere on a near-daily basis for my database, and I see prices going lower.
That's because the new crop of buyers dont even have the Ebay app on their phones. Ebay is for the old guard. It's all about social media BST groups now. We all have been bitching for a new platform to dethrone Ebay and the youngins have done it Dennis!
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LorenAlbert
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by LorenAlbert » Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:35 pm

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Click Max for date range.
There was an exhaustion move in April 2011. Downhill from there. In the shorter time frame; support is at 13. In the longer time frame support is at 10. I would be adding silver now with the understanding that it could fall to 10. I would be buying again at 10. If you live long enough, and with a surge in industrial demand, you may realize a spot profit of 300% in the next 6 years. Then there is the numismatic vector that may be multiplicative over the same time frame. Be a buyer at 17 and 20.
Image

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TheYokel
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by TheYokel » Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:13 pm

It costs $11/oz to take silver out of the ground, and over 33% of it still comes from dedicated silver mines and not byproduct mining.

We know what the floor is because unless they subsidize mining, outfits won't work for a loss...
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messydesk
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by messydesk » Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:54 pm

TheYokel wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:16 pm
...
There's lots and lots of money out there for the Morgan collecting market, and young people *love* to collect things. I'm the generation that grew up collecting MTG cards, the last era of baseball cards, hotwheels, video games, etc...

We just need to get them interested in collecting Morgans (and in our communuty's case, Morgan VAMs)...
I've said before, and I'll say again, that being a collector is something you're born with. People with the collector gene need to become interested in numismatics. People who have the collector gene and are not collecting anything may be experiencing some frustration in their lives as a result. Or, as is common with younger generations, they collect experiences (bucket lists). People without the gene can't be made into collectors, at least for the long term. Find the collectors, turn them on to coins.
Welcome to the VAMWorld 2.0 discussion boards. R.I.P. old VAMWorld.

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messydesk
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by messydesk » Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:57 pm

LorenAlbert wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:35 pm

Image
That peak was during the Central States show that year. I remember unloading a roll of AU 21 Morgans for $800 -- one of the few times I had really good timing. There are people who lost 10% during their flights home after the show.
Welcome to the VAMWorld 2.0 discussion boards. R.I.P. old VAMWorld.

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TheYokel
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Re: IN NEED OF DIRECTION

Post by TheYokel » Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:15 pm

CascadeChris wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:34 pm
DHalladay wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:07 pm
CascadeChris wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:35 pm
Dennis, in my experience of the last 6-8mo I couldn't disagree more with the feel for the current market. There is a hunger out there coming primarily from young and new collectors gobbling up the cool VAMs, both rare & common, and even non-list ones that have cool naked features and they are paying up. I'm surprised almost daily at the prices I'm getting, in general.
Chris, I really want you to be right, but I'm just not seeing it. I am gathering sales results from eBay and elsewhere on a near-daily basis for my database, and I see prices going lower.
That's because the new crop of buyers dont even have the Ebay app on their phones. Ebay is for the old guard. It's all about social media BST groups now. We all have been bitching for a new platform to dethrone Ebay and the youngins have done it Dennis!
Completely correct. And auction-worthy items get posted all the time. Sometimes at a discount, sometimes for new highs. Depends on the sellers situation more than the market.

Chances are, your eBay et al numbers are possibly skewed because you aren't including our sales from our preferred environment. We're stealing buyers and sellers from eBay all the time. EBay is more for unloading these days...

Image

Here's one from a few minutes ago...

And for the sellers... It's almost always a new high since in groups we don't pay auction listing or eBay fees... The prices mighht seem like a hundred dollar dip for the buyer and the final closing numbers... But sellers are making *more* this way...
"There is no E"...

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